From Typhoons to Droughts: Extreme Weather in the Philippines

In the span of just 23 days between October and November 2024, five typhoons and one tropical storm struck the Philippines one after another, displacing 1.4 million people and causing early economic damage estimates of nearly US$500 million. That barrage of storms, which killed more than 170 people, was not an isolated fluke — a study by World Weather Attribution found that climate change has made it 25 per cent more likely that at least three Category 3 to 5 typhoons will hit the country in a single year. The same research concluded that the conditions that formed and fuelled those storms — warmer sea surface temperatures, altered air pressure, and higher humidity — have nearly doubled in likelihood due to fossil fuel emissions.

But the extreme weather story in the Philippines is not only about typhoons. The same climate system that supercharges storms also produces the opposite extreme: drought. El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), regularly brings dry spells and scorching temperatures to large parts of the archipelago. In 2024, 31 provinces faced drought conditions, with the most severe impacts concentrated in 19 provinces across Luzon, including Metro Manila, and extending into the Visayas and Mindanao. Understanding how these two faces of extreme weather — the deluge and the drought — are connected, and what they mean for the country, is essential for anyone living in or following the region. For a deeper look at how environmental pressures compound, you can read about lead pollution threats to Filipino children, another layer of the country’s environmental challenges.

What Drives the Shift Between Soaking Rains and Parched Land

The core mechanism is simpler than it sounds. The Philippines sits in a part of the Pacific Ocean that generates about a third of all tropical cyclones globally. When ocean temperatures rise — as they have been doing steadily due to human-caused climate change — those cyclones have more energy to draw from. The World Weather Attribution study found that climate change nearly doubled the likelihood of the specific atmospheric conditions that formed the six storms in late 2024. That is not a forecast; it is a measurement of what has already changed.

On the other side of the coin, El Niño works by shifting that same warm water eastward. Normally, the western Pacific near the Philippines is warm and rainy. During El Niño, the warm pool moves toward South America, and the rain-bearing cloud systems follow it. Countries in the western Pacific — the Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea — experience drought. The phenomenon was named by Spanish fishermen who noticed warm currents appearing around Christmas, calling it “El Niño” after the Christ child. It is not a disaster in itself, but a natural variation. The problem is that when it arrives on top of an already warming planet, the effects compound.

How the 2024 Storm Cluster and the Coming El Niño Fit Together

The six storms of October–November 2024 were unprecedented in their rapid succession, but they fit a pattern that climate models have been warning about for years. Dr Ben Clarke, a researcher at Imperial College London and co-author of the World Weather Attribution study, put it plainly: “The barrage of typhoons was supercharged by climate change.” The study also found that the typhoon-favouring conditions will continue to increase as the climate warms, boosting the chances of destructive typhoons hitting the Philippines in the future.

Meanwhile, the return of El Niño is already being flagged. Canadian journalist Stephen Leahy described the forthcoming “super El Niño” as “the colossal-heat-monster Kraken,” with impacts expected to begin in late summer or early autumn of the coming year. Scientists predict that 2027 is virtually certain to be the new hottest year ever recorded. For the Philippines, that means a double exposure: the country could face both the tail end of a supercharged typhoon season and the onset of a severe drought within the same year.

In past El Niño events, such as 2024, 31 provinces faced drought conditions. The hardest-hit areas in Luzon included Abra, Apayao, Benguet, Cagayan, Cavite, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Kalinga, La Union, Mountain Province, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Metro Manila, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, and Rizal. In the Visayas and Mindanao, provinces such as Antique, Biliran, Bohol, Cebu, Eastern Samar, Guimaras, Iloilo, Leyte, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Samar, and Lanao del Norte also experienced dry conditions, leading to agricultural losses and water shortages. The pattern is not random — it follows the geography of how El Niño shifts rainfall across the archipelago. For more on how environmental degradation interacts with these natural cycles, see the discussion on agricultural runoff threatening Filipino waters.

What Gets Missed: The Hidden Costs Beyond the Headlines

The obvious costs of extreme weather — destroyed homes, flooded farmlands, lost lives — are well documented. But several less visible consequences deserve attention, especially because they compound over time and affect people who may not be in the direct path of a typhoon or the epicentre of a drought.

Disease Outbreaks Follow the Weather

El Niño does not just dry up crops; it also creates conditions for disease. An analysis published in Scientific Reports examined data from the abnormally strong 2015–2016 El Niño and found increases in incidences of chikungunya, hantavirus, cholera, plague, and dengue. The Department of Health (DOH) lists heat cramps, heat exhaustion, exertional heat injury, and heat stroke as direct heat-related disorders. But the indirect effects are just as serious: diarrhoea and skin diseases become more common during water scarcity because people cannot wash properly. Red tide blooms, which can cause paralytic shellfish poisoning, are also triggered by high water temperatures. Dr Rafael Guerrero III, an academician with the National Academy of Science and Technology, warned that the toxin — saxitoxin — is not destroyed by cooking, so even properly prepared shellfish can be lethal.

Agricultural Losses Are Not Just About Rice

When people think of drought and agriculture, rice usually comes to mind. But the Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Resources Research and Development (PCAARRD) advises farmers to plant drought-tolerant crops during El Niño — sorghum, sweet pepper, asparagus, ube, cassava, peanut, ginger, and many others. Fruit trees like cashew, mango, citrus, tamarind, avocado, jackfruit, guava, and grapes are also more resilient. The point is not that farmers should abandon rice, but that the range of viable options is wider than most people assume. The challenge is access to seeds, knowledge, and markets for these alternative crops.

The Energy in a Single El Niño Event Is Staggering

One American expert explained that El Niño contains more energy than all the fossil fuel burned in the United States since the beginning of the century — all the gasoline, coal, and natural gas combined. It would take more than a million large power plants running at full capacity for a year to heat the ocean that much. That scale helps explain why these events are not something human engineering can simply counteract. The best strategy is adaptation, not control.

To see how these patterns compare across different types of extreme weather, the table below summarises the key differences between typhoon and drought impacts in the Philippines.

→ Scroll right to see all columns

For a broader view of how pollution and environmental stress interact with these weather patterns, the article on macroplastic pollution in the Tullahan River shows how water systems already under pressure from waste become even more vulnerable during extreme weather events.

What You Can Actually Do: Practical Steps for Individuals and Communities

Extreme weather at this scale cannot be stopped by individual action alone, but there are concrete steps that households, farmers, and local leaders can take to reduce harm. The following subsections cover the most actionable strategies grounded in the available research.

Prepare for Water Scarcity Before the Dry Season Hits

During El Niño, water shortages become common. The DOH warns that without adequate water, people cannot wash properly, leading to diarrhoea and skin diseases. The practical response is not complicated but requires advance planning. Households should store clean water in covered containers before the dry season begins. Communities can identify and protect alternative water sources such as deep wells or springs. Local governments should have a rationing plan in place, not as a last resort but as a standing protocol. If you rely on a municipal water supply, ask your local water district what their drought contingency plan is — and if they do not have one, that is the time to raise the issue, not when the taps run dry.

Switch to Drought-Tolerant Crops If You Farm

PCAARRD’s list of drought-tolerant crops is not theoretical. Sorghum, sweet pepper, asparagus, ube, cassava, peanut, ginger, and mung beans are all viable alternatives during El Niño. Fruit trees like cashew, mango, citrus, tamarind, avocado, jackfruit, guava, and grapes also withstand dry conditions better than rice or corn. The process is straightforward: identify which of these crops are suitable for your soil type and local market, source seeds from the Department of Agriculture or accredited suppliers, and plant at the start of the dry season rather than waiting for rain. The key is to treat drought as a predictable seasonal event, not an emergency.

Recognise Heat-Related Illness Early

The DOH lists four stages of heat-related disorders: heat cramps, heat exhaustion, exertional heat injury, and heat stroke. The last is life-threatening. The practical step is to know the signs: heavy sweating, weakness, cold pale skin, and a weak pulse indicate heat exhaustion. If the skin becomes hot, red, and dry with a strong rapid pulse, that is heat stroke — a medical emergency. During El Niño, limit outdoor activity between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m., drink water even if you are not thirsty, and never leave children or elderly people in enclosed spaces without ventilation. These are simple rules, but they are frequently ignored until someone collapses.

Watch for Red Tide Advisories

Red tide blooms are more likely during El Niño because high water temperature triggers them. The Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) issues regular shellfish bulletins during warm periods. The rule is simple: do not eat shellfish — especially mussels — from areas under a red tide advisory. Cooking does not destroy the saxitoxin. Check BFAR’s website or local government announcements before buying or harvesting shellfish. This is one of the easiest risks to avoid, yet every El Niño cycle brings reports of paralytic shellfish poisoning.

For a deeper look at how communities are tackling environmental challenges at the local level, the piece on local solutions to pollution in rural PH offers examples of grassroots adaptation that parallel the kind of preparation needed for extreme weather.

Frequently Asked Questions

Closing Thought

The Philippines does not have the luxury of choosing between preparing for typhoons or preparing for droughts — it must do both, often within the same year. The evidence from the 2024 storm cluster and the returning El Niño is clear: the extremes are intensifying, and the intervals between them are shrinking. The most practical response is not panic but preparation — storing water, diversifying crops, recognising heat illness, and checking shellfish advisories. These are small actions, but they add up. If this was useful, you might also want to read waste solutions addressing the Philippines crisis.

Sources

Philippine Space Agency overview — For understanding how satellite monitoring supports weather forecasting and disaster preparedness in the country.

Philippines air quality and pollution levels — Explores how air pollution compounds health risks during extreme heat and drought events.

El Niño returns, raising fears of extreme heat and drought. Manila Bulletin, 2026.

Climate change ‘supercharged’ deadly string of Philippines storms: Study. The Straits Times, 2024.