In the latest State of Southeast Asia public opinion survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Philippine respondents chose the United States over China by the widest margin among ASEAN member-states — 77 percent versus 23 percent when forced to pick between the two powers. That figure captures something deeper than a simple popularity contest: it reflects how years of maritime confrontation have reshaped public sentiment and, by extension, the country’s foreign policy posture. The Philippines now sits in an unusual position within Southeast Asia — firmly aligned with the U.S. on security matters while simultaneously trying to keep economic channels open with Beijing.
This preference gap is not uniform across the region. The 2026 survey showed that across Southeast Asia as a whole, China emerged as the preferred choice over the U.S., a reversal of the Institute’s 2025 findings. The Southeast Asia Influence Index 2025 by Sydney’s Lowy Institute similarly found that while China holds greater influence over the U.S. in the majority of ASEAN member states, the Philippines — alongside Singapore and Timor-Leste — was among the few countries where the U.S. ranked higher across all five measures of influence: economic relationships, defense networks, cultural influence, diplomatic relationships, and regional engagement. That distinction matters because it suggests Manila’s alignment is not merely reactive but structural, embedded in institutional ties that predate the current administration. For a deeper look at how environmental pressures intersect with these geopolitical dynamics, you can read about pollution’s impact on the Philippine economy.
How Manila Balances Firmness and Engagement
The balancing act is deliberate. In a Bloomberg television interview, Marcos acknowledged that there would be a “very serious restructuring” of the Philippines’ relations with China and the need to “redraw” Manila’s international relationships amid shifting geopolitical realities. Days after that interview, the two countries held their first Foreign Ministry Consultations since 2023, marking a notable resumption of high-level diplomatic engagement. The meetings produced progress on coast guard communications, ocean meteorology, and initial talks on potential oil and gas collaboration — areas where practical cooperation can proceed even as the maritime dispute remains unresolved.
The Energy Crisis That Reshaped Priorities
The Philippine economy is reeling from the impact of this crisis, becoming the first country in the world to officially declare a state of national energy emergency in late March. That declaration was not symbolic — it triggered emergency procurement powers and redirected government resources toward energy security. In his Bloomberg interview, Marcos pointed to this disruption as a potential impetus for Manila and Beijing to explore joint oil and gas development in the South China Sea, framing an external crisis as an opening for greater bilateral engagement.
The country assumed the ASEAN chairmanship in January under the theme “Navigating Our Future, Together.” Following the 48th ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in Cebu, Marcos reaffirmed that the Code of Conduct remains one of the Philippines’ core aspirations before the year ends. The Code of Conduct — a long-negotiated framework for managing behavior in the South China Sea — has been stalled for years, but the Philippines’ chairmanship gives it agenda-setting power. Whether that translates into a signed document by year-end remains uncertain, but the window of opportunity is real. For context on how local environmental initiatives complement these national efforts, see local heroes fighting pollution in the Philippines.
What Gets Missed in the Alliance Narrative
The dominant story about the Philippines’ foreign policy is one of hardening alignment with the United States. That framing is not wrong, but it misses several complications worth examining.
The Alliance Is Real but Not Unlimited
The two countries just concluded Balikatan 2026, the largest iteration of the annual exercises to date, involving 17,000 troops and representatives from five other partner nations. Prior to it, the United States announced the launch of a 4,000-Acre Economic Security Zone in Luzon under the Pax Silica initiative. These are substantial commitments. But the Philippines has also demonstrated it will not sever economic ties with China — the visa-free pilot for Chinese nationals and the resumed energy talks show that Manila sees value in maintaining a working relationship with Beijing. The alliance is real, but it is not a blank check.
Domestic Politics Constrain Foreign Policy Options
Public opinion in the Philippines is overwhelmingly pro-U.S. on security matters, but that does not mean the public supports a complete break with China. The 77 percent figure from the ISEAS survey reflects forced-choice preferences — respondents had to pick one. In reality, many Filipinos want good relations with both powers. The Marcos administration must navigate this nuance: appearing too close to Washington risks domestic criticism from nationalist and left-leaning groups, while appearing too soft on China risks backlash from the same public that has watched Chinese vessels harass Filipino fishermen.
The ASEAN Chairmanship Creates Both Opportunity and Constraint
As ASEAN chair, the Philippines sets the agenda but must also act as a neutral convener. This limits how aggressively Manila can push its own maritime claims within ASEAN forums. Other member states — particularly Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar — have closer ties to Beijing and may resist any Philippine-led initiative that appears too confrontational. The Code of Conduct negotiations will test whether Manila can balance its national interests with its regional responsibilities.
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| Factor | Pro-U.S. Alignment | Pro-China Engagement |
|---|---|---|
| Public opinion | 77% prefer U.S. | 23% prefer China |
| Military exercises | Balikatan 2026: 17,000 troops | Resumed BCM talks |
| Economic policy | Pax Silica Economic Security Zone | Visa-free pilot for Chinese nationals |
| Energy cooperation | U.S. investment in Luzon | Joint oil and gas exploration talks |
What This Means for Filipinos and Regional Stability
The practical implications of this balancing act extend beyond diplomatic circles. For Filipino fishermen in the West Philippine Sea, the posture matters directly — a more assertive Manila means more naval patrols and potentially more confrontations with Chinese vessels. For businesses, the energy emergency means higher electricity costs and uncertainty about supply. For travelers, the visa-free pilot for Chinese nationals could boost tourism revenue but also raises questions about reciprocity and security screening.
For Fishermen and Maritime Communities
The reality of Chinese coercion of Filipino fishermen and uniformed personnel has hardened public sentiment and sharpened Manila’s commitment to its maritime claims under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 2016 arbitral ruling. But a firmer stance does not automatically translate to safer waters. Fishermen in areas like Scarborough Shoal and Pag-asa Island continue to report harassment. The practical question is whether the resumed diplomatic consultations will produce tangible improvements in day-to-day fishing operations or remain at the level of coast guard communications protocols.
For Businesses and Energy Consumers
The national energy emergency declaration gives the government emergency powers to secure energy supplies, but it does not immediately lower electricity rates. The exploration talks with China for potential oil and gas collaboration in the South China Sea could eventually provide new energy sources, but that timeline is measured in years, not months. In the short term, businesses should expect continued volatility in energy prices and may want to explore renewable energy alternatives or energy efficiency measures as a hedge.
For Travelers and Tourism Workers
The 14-day visa-free pilot for Chinese nationals is a clear attempt to boost tourism arrivals from China, which have not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. For tourism workers in destinations like Boracay, Cebu, and Palawan, this could mean more visitors and higher income. However, the pilot is only for one year, and its renewal will depend on whether it generates the expected economic benefits without creating security or immigration issues.
- 1Monitor Energy Price TrendsBusinesses should track electricity rate adjustments from Meralco and other distribution utilities, as the energy emergency may lead to faster pass-through of generation costs.
- 2Review Maritime Safety ProtocolsFishing communities and commercial vessels operating in the West Philippine Sea should coordinate with the Philippine Coast Guard for updated advisories and communication procedures.
- 3Prepare for ASEAN Summit OutcomesBusinesses with regional supply chains should watch for policy announcements from the ASEAN chairmanship that could affect trade, investment, or cross-border logistics.
For a closer look at how local communities are addressing environmental challenges that intersect with these national policies, see local solutions to pollution in rural PH.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the Philippines’ pro-U.S. stance mean it will cut ties with China? â–ľ
What is the Code of Conduct and why does it matter? â–ľ
How does the energy emergency affect ordinary Filipinos? â–ľ
Is the visa-free pilot for Chinese nationals permanent? â–ľ
What is the Pax Silica Economic Security Zone? â–ľ
Looking Ahead
The Philippines enters a defining period in its foreign policy. The combination of an energy crisis, an ASEAN chairmanship, and a public that overwhelmingly favors the U.S. creates both constraints and opportunities. The Marcos administration appears to be pursuing a dual-track approach: maintaining a firm security alliance with Washington while keeping economic and diplomatic channels open with Beijing. Whether this balancing act holds will depend on events that are hard to predict — the trajectory of the energy crisis, the outcome of Code of Conduct negotiations, and the behavior of Chinese vessels in the West Philippine Sea. For now, the most practical takeaway is that the Philippines is not choosing sides in any permanent sense. It is managing relationships, and that management requires constant recalibration. If this was useful, you might also want to read addressing deforestation and pollution in the Philippines.
Sources
Pollution’s impact on the Philippine economy — Explores how environmental degradation affects economic productivity and public health.
Local heroes fighting pollution in the Philippines — Profiles community-led environmental initiatives across the country.
The Philippines in 2026: Between Alliance Commitment and Strategic Hedging. The Diplomat, 2026.
Philippine News Agency — Environment Section. PNA, 2025–2026.
