Philippines: Facing Climate Crisis and Gases

In mid-April, haze enveloped the skies of north Metro Manila after a fire erupted in a closed landfill on a reclaimed land in Manila Bay — a stark reminder that the country’s environmental challenges are rarely isolated events. The Philippines sits at the intersection of several overlapping crises: extreme weather, controversial land reclamation, extractive industries, and a governance system that has struggled to turn climate rhetoric into reliable action. Understanding how these forces interact matters because the consequences — from flooded communities to failed infrastructure projects — affect millions of Filipinos directly.

PHP100M
Baguio’s 3-year environmental action plan budget
pna.gov.ph

70%
Projected rise in plastic waste leakage in SE/East Asia by 2050
oecd.org

791M
Tons of CO₂ emitted by Amazon fires in worst season in 20 years
biogeosciences.net

The figures above only scratch the surface. The growing pollution threat in the Philippines is compounded by a governance gap: projects are approved, funds are allocated, but accountability often lags behind. The result is a pattern where environmental damage and public distrust reinforce each other.

Three forces shaping the Philippines’ climate reality

🌊
Reclamation and Flooding
Manila Bay reclamation projects covering large stretches of coastline may worsen flooding in low-lying urban areas already threatened by climate change. The government has yet to release its environmental impact study.

⛏️
Extractive Industries
Large-scale logging, mining, quarrying, and dredging continue despite the country’s location in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Extreme weather has eroded local capacity, and permit expansion has not stopped.

🏗️
Corruption in Climate Projects
Substandard, faulty, or non-existent flood control projects triggered massive anti-corruption protests. Politicians used climate language to rally support for infrastructure that later proved to be a cover for fund theft.

These three forces are not separate problems — they feed into each other. Reclamation weakens natural flood defenses, extractive industries degrade watersheds, and corruption ensures that the money meant to fix these problems often disappears before any work begins.

Anticipatory Climate Finance
A funding model that disburses money based on weather forecasts rather than waiting for post-disaster assessments. Senator Loren Legarda’s “conditional early action” proposal follows this logic, aiming to let communities procure supplies and evacuate before a disaster strikes.

How corruption turns climate projects into liabilities

The massive anti-corruption movement that emerged last year was triggered by public outrage over substandard, faulty, and even non-existent flood control projects. Before the scandal broke, corrupt politicians had endorsed numerous flood control projects supposedly designed to protect communities from storm surges and flooding caused by destructive typhoons. They usurped the language of climate change to rally public support for infrastructure projects worth billions of pesos — projects later exposed as a cover for the systematic theft of public funds.

Watch Out
When climate finance becomes a liability
The concept of “anticipatory climate finance” could empower communities by prepositioning resources for disasters. But in a bureaucracy that recently gained notoriety for allowing corrupt politicians to acquire ill-gotten wealth through kickbacks and anomalous budget insertions, the same mechanism could be distorted. A well-intentioned policy is only as good as the system that implements it.

Anti-corruption protests have become less frequent this year, but the demand for accountability remains strong, as does public skepticism over projects implemented in communities and nominated by local politicians. The start of the typhoon season could further expose the extent of the flood control controversy — when the next storm hits, communities will see firsthand whether the infrastructure meant to protect them actually exists.

What gets missed in the climate conversation

Most discussions about climate change in the Philippines focus on typhoons and rising sea levels. But several less visible dynamics deserve closer attention.

The reclamation paradox

In 2023, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr suspended the reclamation of Manila Bay after various sectors raised serious concerns. Reclamation has since resumed, but the government has yet to release its study on whether the project will negatively affect the environment. The Manila Bay reclamation blueprint covers a large stretch of the coastlines of Metro Manila and nearby provinces. Mega projects — from airports to casino hubs — have been rolled out despite outcry about their potential detrimental impact on the environment. The question is not whether reclamation changes the coastline, but whether the government is willing to acknowledge and mitigate those changes before it is too late.

The plastic treaty stall

The second part of the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Global Plastics Treaty adjourned in Switzerland without reaching consensus. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed deep regret. Meanwhile, a report by the OECD warned that plastic waste leakage in Southeast Asian countries, plus China, Japan, and South Korea, could increase by nearly 70 percent by 2050 if effective measures are not taken. The Philippines, as one of the world’s largest plastic polluters, has a direct stake in these negotiations. The potential gains and issues surrounding Philippine plastic law highlight the domestic tension between regulation and enforcement.

The ozone recovery paradox

The Earth’s ozone layer is on a path to full recovery — a major environmental success story. But that progress could paradoxically contribute to further global warming, according to new findings. The ozone hole shrank in 2024 compared to previous years, but the very chemicals being phased out were also potent greenhouse gases. Their removal, while beneficial for the ozone layer, removes a cooling effect that partially offset warming. This does not mean ozone recovery is bad — it means the climate system is more complex than simple cause-and-effect models suggest.

→ Scroll right to see all columns

Source: The Diplomat analysis
IssueClaimed BenefitActual Outcome
Flood control projectsProtect communities from storm surgesSubstandard or non-existent; funds stolen
Manila Bay reclamationEconomic development, new landWorsens flooding; environmental study unreleased
Extractive industry permitsEconomic growth, jobsErodes local capacity; worsens disaster impact

What can be done — and what is already happening

Despite the grim picture, several initiatives offer concrete paths forward. The key is distinguishing between performative action and genuine structural change.

Conditional early action and anticipatory finance

Senator Loren Legarda’s “conditional early action” proposal intends to disburse funds based on a forecast instead of waiting for a post-calamity assessment. This would allow communities to procure supplies and prepare for evacuation before a disaster hits. The logic is straightforward: waiting until after a typhoon makes landfall to release funds means communities are already in crisis mode. Pre-positioning resources saves both time and lives. However, the same mechanism could be distorted in a bureaucracy that recently gained notoriety for allowing corrupt politicians to acquire ill-gotten wealth through kickbacks and anomalous budget insertions. Safeguards — independent auditing, transparent disbursement records, and community oversight — are essential.

  • 1
    Forecast triggers fund release
    When a weather forecast crosses a predetermined threshold, funds are automatically released to local government units — no post-disaster assessment required.

  • 2
    Community prepositioning
    Local disaster risk reduction offices use the funds to stock supplies, prepare evacuation centers, and mobilize response teams before the event.

  • 3
    Independent audit and transparency
    All disbursements are recorded in a public ledger and subject to post-event auditing to prevent misuse.

Data-driven climate adaptation

The Climate Change Commission (CCC) and the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) are strengthening inter-agency collaboration to advance data-driven and science-based climate adaptation planning nationwide. This matters because many past projects were approved based on political convenience rather than scientific evidence. The CCC also shared the Philippines’ efforts at the Asia-Pacific Climate Change Adaptation Forum (APAN Forum) 2025 in Bangkok, and its Project IMPACT — which aims to strengthen climate finance transparency, accountability, and openness — secured the top award under the Climate and Environment theme at the 2025 Open Gov Challenge. These are small but significant steps toward institutionalizing evidence-based decision-making.

Local and international partnerships

The Philippines and Germany are pushing forward with the TRANSCEND Project, a joint initiative that strengthens climate governance and empowers local actors. The British Embassy in Manila co-chaired efforts to push for empowered local actors in climate adaptation. The Million Trees Foundation and Denmark’s Grundfos launched the “Circle of Life” project at the La Mesa Watershed to boost tree planting. The Philippine Coast Guard conducted simultaneous mangrove planting in Surigao del Norte and Surigao del Sur. Baguio City laid down a comprehensive three-year plan costing PHP100 million aimed at preserving, protecting, and restoring the environment by 2028. These initiatives show that action is possible — but they remain fragmented without a coordinated national framework.

Upcoming threats: drought and typhoon season

A super drought is expected to affect rural areas in the next two to three months. The start of the typhoon season could further expose the extent of the flood control controversy. These are not distant possibilities — they are imminent. Communities that rely on agriculture will face water shortages. Urban areas will test whether flood control infrastructure actually exists. The coming months will reveal whether the lessons of past failures have been learned.

Frequently asked questions

Why is Manila Bay reclamation controversial?
Reclamation projects cover large stretches of coastline and could worsen flooding in low-lying areas. The government suspended reclamation in 2023 after public outcry but later allowed it to resume without releasing an environmental impact study.
What is “conditional early action” in climate finance?
It is a proposal by Senator Loren Legarda to release disaster funds based on weather forecasts rather than waiting for post-calamity assessments. This allows communities to prepare before a disaster hits, but safeguards are needed to prevent misuse.
How does corruption affect climate projects in the Philippines?
Corrupt politicians have endorsed flood control projects worth billions of pesos that were later found to be substandard or non-existent. The funds were stolen, and communities were left without protection. Public skepticism remains high.
What is the ozone recovery paradox?
The ozone layer is recovering, which is good. But the chemicals being phased out were also potent greenhouse gases that had a cooling effect. Removing them could contribute to further warming — a complex trade-off that scientists are still studying.
What is Project IMPACT?
It is a Climate Change Commission initiative that aims to strengthen climate finance transparency, accountability, and openness. It won the top award under the Climate and Environment theme at the 2025 Open Gov Challenge.

The Philippines faces a convergence of environmental and governance challenges that no single policy can solve. Reclamation, extractive industries, corruption, and climate change are not separate problems — they are symptoms of a system that prioritizes short-term economic gain over long-term resilience. The coming drought and typhoon season will test whether the country has learned from past failures. What matters most is not the scale of the challenge, but whether the institutions meant to address it can be trusted to act in the public interest. If this was useful, you might also want to read how traditions shape environmental awareness in the Philippines.

Sources

Sewage threat: public health at risk — Explores another dimension of environmental degradation affecting Filipino communities.

How Corruption Exacerbates the Climate Crisis in the Philippines. The Diplomat, 2026.

Philippine News Agency — Environment Section. PNA, 2025.

OECD Report on Plastic Waste Leakage in Southeast and East Asia. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2025.

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